Week 08 - I cheated

OK, I said i was going to take last week off and i sort of acheived that. I did trade on my account on one day when the opportunity struck. A bit sad really, but knowing I have a fair chance of getting something out of the day means given half a chance I will try something.

I guess that's why it's important to have a break once in a while. I think trading can be addictive and immersive. I kept wondering last week if I had missed an great opportunities. That said, having a break isn't that bad from time to time. I feel refreshed and ready to face the new week, let's hope it is a good one!

Week 07 - How do you eat an elephant?

"How do you eat an elephant?" I heard this phrase this week and it tickled me, but I think it applies equally to trading. The question was posed when somebody asked how to make a million.

The answer to the question is, "One bite at a time" and the same applies to trading. Trading isn't about being right all the time it is about getting it right most of the time. Lots of little right decisions can soon add up into something more significant. Despite having a much bigger bank now then when I started I'll only put it to use if I see a clear opportunity. For most of last week I really struggled to see any opportunities and struggled but later on in the week things came together very well ending in a good week.

Talking of opportunties I don't think there will be many in week 8. With the weather putting paid to several meetings already and it being half term week I think this is an opportune time to take some time off. There are plenty of opportunties later in the year so I'll take the chance for some R&R while the outlook is less favourable.

Yin and yang

Taken from wiki....

"The dual concepts of yin and yang describe two primal opposing but complementary principles or cosmic forces said to be found in all non-static objects and processes in the universe."

I think this could also describe my trading sometimes! I have mentioned that staying in the game is important, as is the right mindset. But sometimes, even if you know what to do, you just can't seem to do it. Have a look at the following image of a recent trading day, thankfully the exception rather than the rule. I started focused and well in control, then suddenly the day just fell apart. While this was unpleasant it is actually quite beneficial. Every now and again you need a slap around the face to stay focused!

The importance of being earnest

Thanks to somebody who pointed out the error in my earlier post. I have edited the image to avoid any confusion. Unfortunately in the rush to capture images I couldn't get the calculator and screen together. When I used alt prtsrn I just seem to to capture them seperately, and therefore I had to merge the images. I didn't think about how they would be interepreted, I just wanted to show the calculator on the screen.

One of the important things about this challenge is, for me at least, to show it is completely genuine. This is why I set up a new Betfair account and funded it with a new card. This allows me to keep seperate and detailed records for this challenge. I can understand why people would be sceptical but all the figures you see and amounts can be independently verified. I hoped this challenge would inspire people, I am sure readers will take in the manner it was intended.

While there is no doubt that trading isn't a case of just turning up and pressing a few buttons; it is a really useful and interesting way to partipate in gambing markets. Personally, I feel it is your best chance of profiting from them also.

Week 06 - Bumpy stuff

Somebody posted on the blog last week "You make it look so easy". Well weeks are often not easy and last week was an erratic performance by any standards. Several days I felt I just couldn't get it right and my general trading performance wasn't particulary great. Too many losing races but the overall total got there in the end.

It's a difficult time of the year, you wake up never knowing whether all the courses will be running or what the markets will be like. So all you can do is your best to keep on pushing forward and trying to pull out a result whatever the market. I'm fairly happy to keep things moving in the right direction at the moment and trying to save my gunpowder for better things.

Keeping it simple

Here is a favoured set up that I use for certain markets. It's really simple and wont lead to you losing anything significant. In this example you can see I have set up Bet Angel to offset by one tick with a 60 second fill or kill. I am using the charting screen to enter trades and the trading profit calculator to exit.

When the weight of money is imbalanced on the favourtie in the centre of the book I am clicking to lay at the current back or back at the current lay price and sit there waiting for the order to fill when it fills I simply using the trade calculator to exit the position on the other side. You can see here I am using £1000 stakes and have returned just short of £26 fully greened up. You can see from the second graph that the weight of money is pretty stable and that is why this position is working. By backing or laying at the current prices, but on the wrong side of the book, I am offering money to the market and when it is taken, quite likley on an odds on shot, Bet Angel is simply putting it back one tick better. If the position threatens to go AWOL, one click on the trading calculator exits my position. If you did this with small stakes its pretty hard to lose any serious amounts of money. As you get more confident you can raise stakes to bigger amounts or place more trades in the market at any one time.

Week 05 - What goes around comes around

This was a very satisfactory week. Last week I was moaning about my poor luck but this week I shall accept that the opposite happened. In week 4 I suffered some unfortunate reversals, nothing earth shattering but just unfortunate. This week when the chips were down lady luck smiled on me. On one day I made a right hash of the second to last race at Wolverhampton and lost £50. I was cursing my misfortune when they decided to abandon the rest of the fixture due to snow and all bets were voided. This was a week where misfortune was repaid.

I think there is an important lesson in this week for everybody. I have a strict rule of not chasing losses, when I face the odd race with a loss making position I take it on the chin, no matter how bad it feels. I do this because I know that at some point the opposite is likely to happen and when it does I will be balanced again. I think where a lot of people go wrong is that they just can't accept losses. They will do almost anything to avoid them when in fact, accepting a loss is probably the most important thing you can do. Try to view it not as a loss but as another step on the path to a profit, this should put you in the right mindset.

I'm not expecting any fireworks in February as I am expecting the next few weeks to be poorer. To avoid my account balance mimicing that I will be playing it safe for the moment.

Month 01

Well that was a good start wasn't it? After the first four weeks I am now well in profit and have repaid the initial capital. I think the highlight has to be the start, after getting such a good start it gave me the confidence to push forward and the belief that I was on the right track. I am expecting February to be a much tougher month as the weather takes its toll and good quality opportunities become scarce. I was actually thinking of having a break during February, with it being school half term it is probably worth spending some time with the family as the summer months will be busy and I'll hopefully be very busy each day and evening with less time on my hands.

Now I have more capital to play with I should be able to take more risk but I am not expecting February to throw up many chances. So I'll adopt a cautious approach and unless there are some clear cut opportunities I may work on pretty boring stakes. I am also going to try not to draw down on my bank so I can build it to do bigger things.