I'm in a good mood today as this week has been pretty positive and I also broke through the 25% mark. When I sat down at the start of this year and thought about how I would go about this challenge I really didn't think things would have gone so well. I budgeted a much lower amount and really based that on what I needed to make this viable. I'm pleased as punch that it has gone better than expected and would like to thank those that have made this possible. I am very appreciative of your outstanding help. I'm optimistic now that I will reach my target; I wasn't so sure when I set out on this path. Many things could still go wrong but I feel at least I have the wind behind me now.
Wednesday, 16 April 2008
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18 comments:
Only found your blog last week and have enjoyed reading through the entries, a fantastic insight into your challenge. Thanks for sharing and well done on achieving your excellent profits to date!
I would be very interested to know what you have put your “Mr Hyde” day down to? I appreciate that it is highly unlikely you are going to be right every time but when you get it wrong what do you (have you) learnt for next time?
I'm keen to get some training but there seems to be nothing happening with the Peter Webb training academy. Do you know anything about any new dates ?
Please keep up the good work, I really look forward to following your progress.
Regards
JOHN
Well done mate - that is quite some landmark! Things are going okay with me building up slowly and have achieved a few £25 race profits I am more of a one tick trader rather than a trend trader like you seem to be.
Well done again and I like the thanks you have given to everyone who has given you there money - it is good of them :-)
Heres to the next 25%!
Could you give us a general example of the sort of stakes you use? I know they change depending on the money in the market but for example, I use from £100-£300 stakes.
I've tried upping my stakes before but I didn't make as much as when I use my smaller stakes. Not sure why, I think maybe I hesitated because I could loose so much. Did you go through this when you started increasing your stakes?
"what you have put your “Mr Hyde” day down to"
Just one of those things. You have good and bad days and I keep very good records of every day. So I know when a good or bad day is possible. But some days you just can't explain. There seems to be a certain level of randomness about the market that means it's impossible to predict what any one day will definately be like. All you can do is set a rough expectation. That said I never set a target I just try and do my best each day.
"I like the thanks you have given to everyone who has given you there money"
LOL, On a serious note I have often pondered where the money is coming from. After seeing a piece in the Bet Angel newsletter I went to a course and sure enough each of the bookies had a laptop, no doubt plugged into Betfair to hedge off their positions. I guess that goes on in a bigger scale on line as well. When you look at the turnover a trader does and the return they make it's peanuts compared to the bookies. I guess there are quite a few traders on the wrong side of the line as well. But I think there is still plenty of scope in the market for some time to come. I think the biggest threat to the market is Betfair itself!
Well done on the 25% mark!
As a matter of interest, do your trading methods tend to be rule-based (in the sense that in theory they could be automated or replicated to some degree)? Or would you say that it is fairly intuitive/subjective?
Wow great blog!
The one thing that's puzzled me though is how you're identifying those big trends? Do you have a moving stop loss and ride the profits? What indicators are you looking at?
Keep up the good work!
Michael
"Could you give us a general example of the sort of stakes you use? "
As much as I can if it feels safe. There is no standard stake as this should vary depending upon what the market feels like. I suggest you start with small stakes and increase it as your bank goes up.
"do your trading methods tend to be rule-based"
Ah, the holy grail. I don't think things like horse racing are suited to automation. Just look at todays markets and you will know what I mean. No computer can see if a horse looks restless going to post.
"how you're identifying those big trends"
Catching a swing is only one of several tactics you can use.
Today there were at least a dozen good trading races and on average they moved quite a bit. We had one whose priced ranged from a high of 3.45 down to 1.98 at the off and another from 2.48 to 1.63. I obviously didn't catch those from top to bottom but you don't need to get it right that often with moves like that, as long as you cut your loss quickly you should end up on the right side of things. But you can't expect to these one race after another, that's just not realistic.
" No computer can see if a horse looks restless going to post."
Thanks for your reply pinsticker, I agree with you on that point. But do you not think that in certain cicumstances (e.g. weight of money trading), a rule-based strategy could work?
read your blog with interest, if its not obvious could you descibe a "trend" and how you deal with it please
"a rule-based strategy could work?"
I'm not sure, sports markets are not quite like a normal financial market. So much happens that can influence price I'm not completely convinced it can be automated. I guess there are some elements that could be automated but I guess competition will be fierce in those areas. I am pretty sure a human is likely to do better than a bot, given experiance. I guess the converse is true in certain circumstances but I've seen many examples were odd things happen and that is a potential mine field for something that can't see it.
"could you descibe a "trend"
Not sure what you mean there? If I think a price is going to move by quite a few ticks I'll jump on the back of that move and ride it for as long as I can. I'd prefer to get out quickly and for a small loss rather or nothing than watch something go in completely the wrong direction. So catching these moves means lots of little losses and the occasional big win. If I can't catch a trend and have a small loss before the start I may try and scalp a minor amount out of the market late on.
I'm keen to get some training but there seems to be nothing happening with the Peter Webb training academy. Do you know anything about any new dates ?
Click the link about training on the right hand side of the blog. They have a mentoring scheme where you get training in the comfort of your own home
I am just curious withso many bets do you mind stating how mnay betfair points you now have??
I know what angle you are coming from ;)
But unfortunately you get very few points worth while if you trade. You only accrue points on commission paid and as a trader that's not much. I current have around 8000 points. I don't bother looking at them. I just assume I am going to be taxed 5% of profit.
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